Interesting article from Trey Ratcliff on the future of cameras....

You know, my first digital camera was a mirrorless bridge camera - a Fuji Finepix S602, 3mp. It's a terrific little camera with an electronic viewfinder, it's small, lightweight, and has many of the advantages of these new mirrorless cameras except that it doesn't have interchangeable lenses. And, of course, it's an older camera with older sensor and metering technology.

I wouldn't mind going to something like it in the future, with an EVF, interchangable lenses, modern sensor, and other features found on today's SLRs. But that's many years away for me; a major digital camera purchase is not something I can afford on a whim, and I've only had my current camera for 2 years, so I think I've got about 3-5 years before I'll be shopping for a new one.
 
Though I'm already on the mirrorless revolution, I still can't say I agree on any death knells for DSLRs. ; When it comes down to it, all the areas where mirrorless cameras are not currently competitive will take many more generations to try to get them there (tracking focus, sports, EVF refresh, etc), then there's the whole issue of downsizing. ; While I love my compact mirrorless camera for when I want to go lighter, simple fact is I don't always ; WANT to go lighter...shoot with a long telephoto lens and mirrorless cameras feel ridiculously unbalanced - a big, beefy camera with a big beefy grip is hard to compete with in this regard. ; And then there are all the issues that come with downsizing - less battery life (by as much as 400% less), smaller buffers that can't handle lots of continuous frames before they have to clear, overheating issues for frequent shooting, and so on.

I'm all for the mirrorless evolution, love my NEX, but at the same time DSLRs are sticking with me for a long time to come - until they can make a mirrorless camera that is as big as an enthusiast DSLR with a fat deep grip, battery that can go 2,500 frames, buffer that can handle 50 RAWs at 7-10fps, built-in stabilization, and an EVF that exactly mimics an optical viewfinder in refresh, color, panning, and brightness (or a hybrid OVF/EVF). ; While that may be in the future, I truly don't think it's in the NEAR future...and even then, DSLRs are likely to live on as boutiquers anyway, for those who prefer them. ; The only caveat might be that DSLRs might morph into something akin to Sony's SLTs (which are DSLRs in all but name...they have mirrors, they just don't move them...and the electronic viewfinder takes its feed the same way the optical finder would).
 
Justin, I don't think Trey was saying that dSLRs were going to go completely away just yet, it's just that you'll see the true low end consumer ones go away quickly. ; Right now multiple companies are working on "sensor based phase detection" which means that even a translucent mirror will be going away.

Eventually the mirrorless companies will produce fast zoom lenses to appease the prosumer crowd. (they already have really fast primes) ; About the only thing people are wanting right this second is a 35-100 f/2.8 or f/2 lens for m4/3. ; When you can design a lens like that then it will be cheaper and smaller.

Which is a far cry from putting a Nikon 1 on a 600 f/4. ; (trying to find the pic of it, I've seen it once....)
 
Now THAT is just goofy looking. ; Imagine the looks you would get at bag check. ;


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My problem with the mirrorless cameras being so compact is that even with relatively 'normal' lenses, they still get awkward ergonomically. ; Your faster 18-70 or 35-105 F2.8 would still be 2-3 times bigger and heavier than the camera - for me, it just doesn't work. ; If they can get all the issues worked out with mirrorless where they can make bigger pro-style bodies for long lens use, but using superfast improved EVFs, phase-detect on sensor that actually works in low light and doesn't compromise resolution too much wtih at least an APS-C sensor, and the battery and buffer size of a large DSLR, then it may become a worthy replacement for me.

Trey indicated that he'll likely never buy a DSLR again because of the future of the mirrorless cameras. ; But I don't think many photographers could make even that claim, as the future for me is far too long off for these cameras to reach parity, and therefore DSLRs are more likely in the near future for me. ; Waaaay down the road...maybe the '3rd gen' or even whatever the '4th gen' are, may eventually replace DSLRs in my arsenal.
 
just remember, waaay down the road in digital is only 10 years out, so it'll be here in time for my senior years where i won't want to carry 40lbs of camera backpack
 
For me, this was an interesting article to read. ; I mean I am a few generations old on my Rebel XT and would love to be able to run out and buy a new 60D right now. ; As this isn't the case, it makes me think that I should watch these newer cameras a little more closely and see what happens. ; Maybe my next camera won't be a dSLR at all. ; Maybe it will be the next NEX from Sony or some other 3rd generation camera still to come. ; I don't mind looking silly as long as my photos are great.


Thanks for the article.
 
The problem is the speed at which the electronics portion of the camera is able to be downsized compared to the lenses. Think about smartphones. they could be even smaller and still do more, but at some point they become unusable because they are too small. Same with cameras. At some point I expect someone will try to wrap the camera portion around the lens so it looks even smaller. But will it be comfortable to use? At some point the ergonomics will have to drive the technical progress, not the other way around.

Erich
 
True that, my only issue with the g1 handling was how easy it was for my stubbies to accidentally move the settings. For some reason the gh2 seems just slightly enough larger so this isn't happening as much. My neice is buying my g1 and her slender hands have no such problem
Fyi she just came back from key west and her first email to me led off with "I sure have a lot to learn about this camera"
I am encouraged though, she took a very good sunset and sailboat shot in mallory square
 
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